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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."