🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.